Pakistan can harness the unprecedented growth of rooftop solar through decentralised, community-driven "swarm grids", but regulatory reform remains the key missing link between technical feasibility and large-scale deployment, according to a new study. The Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED) on Thursday launched a techno-economic assessment of swarm electrification at an event attended by policymakers, regulators, energy experts and civil society representatives. The research comprises two publications: 'Harnessing Pakistan's Solar Revolution: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Swarm Electrification', which examines the feasibility of swarm grids in urban and rural settings, and 'Swarm Grids: The Next Phase of the Solar Boom', which proposes a transition agenda and implementation roadmap.

Pakistan's solar expansion has largely been driven by households, farmers and businesses seeking reliable and affordable electricity rather than by government policy. According to the study, more than 50 gigawatts of solar panels have been imported, compared with around 41GW of installed generation capacity nationwide. Despite the rapid expansion of distributed solar, however, blackouts, brownouts and prolonged load-shedding continue in many areas.

The study argues that the central problem is increasingly one of coordination rather than generation capacity. Millions of rooftop solar systems operate as isolated assets instead of being integrated into a coordinated electricity resource. PRIED defines a swarm grid as a digitally coordinated, decentralised local electricity network through which households and businesses can consume their own solar power, store electricity, sell surplus power to neighbours and purchase electricity from nearby prosumers, while using the national grid primarily as a backup. Unlike conventional microgrids, which generally operate within fixed boundaries, swarm grids can allow households and clusters to join, leave or trade electricity dynamically.

The researchers tested the concept in two contrasting settings: Islamabad as an urban case, with relatively dense and diverse demand on an established grid, and Tharparkar in Sindh as a rural case characterised by dispersed communities and seasonal agricultural and pastoral livelihoods. The assessment used household surveys, solar resource data and an hourly dispatch model to examine the technical, economic and institutional feasibility of the model, as well as communities' willingness to participate. The study found that swarm grids are technically feasible in both urban and rural areas, although their economic models would differ.