The rapid advance of the Houthis in Yemen has transformed the security situation around the Bab al-Mandab Strait and created an unexpected strategic test for the newly concluded Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan. The Houthis' capture of Perim (Mayun) Island, which sits strategically in the Bab al-Mandab, has given them a potentially decisive position over one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. More disturbing for Saudi Arabia is the Houthi declaration that the waterway will remain open to international shipping except for Saudi vessels. The ongoing development raises a fundamental question: if the Houthis deliberately prevent Saudi shipping from using Bab al-Mandab, would this amount to an armed attack on Saudi Arabia under the Makkah Agreement? And, if so, what would Pakistan be expected to do as a signatory?
Several factors surrounding the question require explanation. First, the question could not have arisen at a more sensitive moment. The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan, provides that an armed attack against any one of the three countries shall be regarded as an attack against all. The Foreign Office spokesperson has stressed that the agreement is defensive in nature and is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against external aggression. It also explicitly links collective defence to the inherent right of individual and collective self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter. The Houthi advance therefore presents the first major practical test of this new arrangement.
Second, Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Its importance extends far beyond Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Any sustained disruption of the strait affects shipping between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal and has immediate consequences for energy prices, insurance premiums and global supply chains. The present crisis is particularly serious because the Strait of Hormuz is already severely disrupted. Bab al-Mandab has consequently become an important alternative route for Saudi oil exports to Asian markets. The Houthi advance threatens to close that alternative as well. According to recent reporting, disruption of Bab al-Mandab could affect a significant portion of global oil flows and international trade. The capture of Perim Island is therefore not simply another development in Yemen's long-running civil war. It gives the Houthis a strategic position from which they can threaten maritime traffic passing through the strait.
Third, significantly, the Houthi position is not necessarily a threat to international shipping as a whole. It is the reported distinction between international shipping and Saudi shipping. This is strategically important. A general threat to navigation can be presented as an attempt to influence the international system or to deter military intervention. A policy specifically targeting Saudi vessels, however, is much easier to interpret as coercion directed against the Saudi state. For Riyadh, the danger is therefore twofold: the Houthis could threaten Saudi territory and infrastructure while simultaneously restricting the Kingdom's maritime access to Asian markets.
Fourth, can the Makkah Pact be invoked? The answer is not straightforward. The Makkah Agreement says that an armed attack against one of its members shall be considered an attack against all, setting the stage for delicate diplomatic and strategic calculations among Islamabad, Riyadh and Ankara in the coming weeks.