El Nino will intensify further before peaking in December, the United Nations said on Thursday, warning it could be among the strongest weather events witnessed since at least 1950. The naturally occurring phenomenon is set to bring higher temperatures to much of the planet, the UN's weather and climate agency said, with its impact compounding the effects of man-made climate change.
"El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December," the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update. "It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions."
El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing worldwide changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall. It typically occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts around 9 to 12 months.
Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite, La Nina, with neutral conditions in between. "Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October-December, reflecting the strengthening of the El Nino event which will drive weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems, and communities across the globe," the WMO said.
The forecast is based on consensus across 13 leading national and international meteorological centres. "El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.
"WMO forecasts indicate a near 100% likelihood that it will persist through February, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950." Saulo explained that El Nino does not add new heat to the planet, but releases heat stored in the ocean. "The ocean it is drawing from is the warmest we have ever measured.
There is simply more heat available to release," she said. The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific increased from 1.6℃ above normal in June to 2.5℃ in August.
For October-December, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7℃ above normal, eclipsing the previous record of 2.6℃ set in 2015-2016. While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later.
This event is already hitting some regions hard, including Central America, where animals and crops are dying from drought. The international community remains on high alert as meteorological agencies continue to monitor the situation closely to mitigate potential disasters.