Country we inherited and responsibility for the country we will leave behind. As the country turns 79, I remain convinced that its future can be brighter than its present. This confidence rests on forces already visible across the economy and society, and on choices still available to us. At 70, and again at 75, I described Pakistan's future in these very pages through megatrends and game changers. Megatrends are forces already underway, while game changers are the decisions and events that determine whether those forces improve lives or deepen existing problems.
Nine years after my first assessment, several trends have matured, providing five reasons for optimism, starting with the requirement for honesty. Official poverty rose to 28.9 per cent in 2024-25, and 28 per cent of children aged five to 16 remain out of school, while female labour force participation stays below 23 per cent. Goods exports and foreign investment weakened during 2025-26, and terrorism claimed 1,139 lives in 2025, alongside two recent floods that displaced millions of people and caused losses worth billions of rupees. These figures explain public frustration, but they also identify where better choices can produce large gains.
The recent economic stabilisation has restored some room for choice, with GDP growing by 3.7 per cent in 2025-26 and large-scale manufacturing expanding by 5.8 per cent. Remittances reached a record $41.6 billion, the current account remained close to balance, and foreign exchange reserves rose to $22.7 billion by mid-July. Pakistan has moved away from the immediate threat of default that overshadowed 2023, giving policymakers time to address deeper weaknesses. The game changer will be policies aimed at attracting investment, boosting exports and enhancing productivity, requiring the government to broaden the base of direct taxation and reduce energy and logistics costs for competitive firms.
The second reason is the rapid spread of digital access, with household internet access reaching 70 per cent and IT exports increasing by more than 20 per cent to $4.6 billion. Pakistani freelancers, software firms and young entrepreneurs now sell services in markets that once required migration, large capital or a foreign office. Artificial intelligence can widen this opening by helping teachers prepare lessons and enabling farmers to use water more efficiently. Data triangulation can further support informed policymaking, such as electricity companies detecting losses and revenue collectors identifying tax evaders, while the third reason lies firmly in Pakistan's people, including those living abroad.
