Charles Oliveira believes Justin Gaethje could walk away from the UFC rather than return for a smaller payday. If his prediction comes true, this will leave the lightweight division waiting for clarity on its championship future.
Gaethje won the undisputed lightweight title by defeating Ilia Topuria at the UFC's White House event in June. The victory came with the financial rewards and attention surrounding an unprecedented setting, and Oliveira doubts another fight will offer the champion a comparable payday.
"I think that, without a doubt, he is not going to make more money in his next fight than he made at the White House," Oliveira told MMA Fighting. The Brazilian former champion said he understands why Gaethje, who has built a reputation through 33 professional fights, might consider retirement after reaching the top of the division.
Oliveira also wants the UFC to resolve the uncertainty surrounding Gaethje's next move. The champion has indicated that he is unlikely to fight again before the end of 2026 and has left the door open to retirement.
The decision could reshape the lightweight title picture. Oliveira is scheduled to defend his BMF title against Diego Lopes at UFC 335 on December 12 in Las Vegas.
He believes a victory would put him in line for the undisputed championship, regardless of whether Gaethje continues fighting. That claim comes despite Arman Tsarukyan holding a split-decision victory over Oliveira from 2024.
Tsarukyan has also strengthened his case for a title shot with a first-round knockout of Mauricio Ruffy. Oliveira acknowledged that Tsarukyan deserves consideration but argued that his own name carries greater commercial appeal.
He also has a previous victory over Gaethje, submitting the American at UFC 274 in 2022. If Gaethje retires, Oliveira expects to face Tsarukyan for the vacant title.
If the champion returns, both contenders could remain in the running for a shot at his belt. The ongoing speculation has added considerable drama to the lightweight division, keeping fans and analysts guessing about the ultimate outcome of these high-profile matchups.