Republicans are returning to work this week facing the prospect of an especially lame-duck session after a bruising midterm election that set off a countdown clock on their control of Congress. This dynamic matters because Democrats have little incentive to help Republicans advance their agenda before January, while departing GOP lawmakers could complicate matters further by skipping votes or defying party leaders.
As a result, most of the items on their to-do list could get kicked to the new Congress, aside from a few items House GOP leaders would rather avoid altogether, such as another Jeffrey Epstein bill and an impeachment vote, even as lawmakers face just over a month before another potential government funding lapse.
Thomas Massie - who GOP voters kicked to the curb in favor of a more Trump-aligned Republican - is pushing another Epstein-related vote, presenting an additional headache for the administration and GOP leaders. Massie also plans to try to force a vote this week on his impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, all while Republicans prepare to lose their House and Senate majorities on Jan. 3, ending their ability to set both chambers' legislative agendas.
As a reality check, Donald Trump still wields the presidential veto power. Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic strategist and former communications director for the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, noted that Democrats may postpone some legislative fights until January, when they will have more negotiating leverage, adding that he thinks there are some things Democrats would be happy to kick down the road.
At the same time, Congress still faces major legislative hurdles. Lawmakers need to pass the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), potentially setting up a fight over the Iran war as some Republicans grow more willing to criticize the conflict.
Additionally, a bipartisan permitting bill could overhaul how energy and infrastructure projects are approved, while Senate Republicans race to confirm more Trump administration officials and judicial nominees before Democrats take over. Discussing the situation, Nadeam Elshami, former chief of staff to Nancy Pelosi, told Axios that what has to get done are appropriations and the NDAA bill.
He explained that Democrats feel emboldened in both of those discussions and have both the momentum and the leverage, making them unlikely to support provisions advancing Trump's priorities. Elshami noted that permitting reform would be nice but faces real hurdles, and regarding Republicans' hopes of passing another reconciliation package, he said he just doesn't see that getting done.
Between the lines, dozens of House lawmakers and at least 17 senators are leaving Congress, raising questions about attendance, cooperation, and how much work departing members actually want to do in what amounts to a professional case of congressional senioritis. Some, like Massie, have decided to shake the table and make their party feel their wrath.
Elshami observed that if it is a critical vote, he believes members would return, but on less consequential votes, he highly doubts they will be in town. Mollineau pointed out competing incentives, stating that as a Democrat he wants as few of these people to come back as possible, but added that they are still getting paid and it is still their job.
Outgoing lawmakers eyeing lobbying jobs or future campaigns also have reason to show up since members have very long memories regarding who showed up to work and who did not during these final weeks.