"The complexities of international affairs make simple solutions and trustworthy prophecies impossible," warned Hans J. Morgenthau.
The evolving United States (US)-China strategic competition and the growing rivalry between the two create the possibility of both countries falling into the Thucydides Trap. Fuelled by the pursuit of national interests, both aspire not only to project power in the Asia-Pacific but also to project power over Artificial Intelligence (AI), emerging technology, semiconductors, and trade.
The US holds a monopoly over petrodollars and employs economic coercion through trade wars. China, in parallel, holds economic dominance and AI supremacy to dominate globally.
Morgenthau, a leading classical realist, states, 'the main signpost that helps political realism find its way through international politics is the concept of interest defined in terms of power.' Power is understood not merely in terms of military or economic strength; rather, it is the ability of a state to influence the decision-making of another state in accordance with its own will.
Both the US and China seek greater power to gain more influence on the global geopolitical chessboard. Using their influence, they can persuade decision-makers in satellite states to subordinate their policies at the regional level.
Even if a state is neither dependent nor weak, possessing far greater power can help a state leverage quantifiable influence through seemingly modest inducements, such as economic aid, a loan, the sale of state-of-the-art weapons, foreign direct investment, the provision of jobs, scholarships, or a flagship project to young professionals.
Each tactic can be translated into usable strategic influence to achieve political objectives. According to classical realists, the rivalry between the US and China is not merely a dispute between competing interests; rather, it is a struggle for power in an anarchic world where each seeks to dominate the other, driven by the human desire for prestige, power, influence, and self-interest.
Every state is represented either by an individual leader, as in the cases of China or North Korea, or by a parliament selected democratically, as in the cases of the US or the United Kingdom (UK). However, the human desire to achieve a position of power, defend the national interest, and gain influence, both domestically and internationally, is inherent in Homo sapiens.
The United States of America, led by a president and his administration, risks undermining its own hegemonic authority if it appeases a rising power (China), mirroring the mistakes made by the UK and France toward Germany before World War II. For the US, containing China's growing influence and expanding ambitions is justifiable.
Similarly, China, led by President شی جن پنگ, seeks to revive the ancient Chinese civilisation that once ruled the Eurasian landmass. He believes that this can be achieved by protecting and justifying Communist Party rule, re-establishing old maritime Silk Routes, and maintaining control over the South and East China Seas, which would lead to economic development and, ultimately, China's return to the prominence it enjoyed until the Qing Dynasty.
The US, along with many Western states, considers China a revisionist power. Classical realists even argue that, although both states are engaged in a constant tug of war for dominance in the international system, prudence and pragmatism have kept both states from miscalculation.
Ultimately, diplomacy, strategic stability, and open communication channels remain vital tools to avert a catastrophic conflict. Both superpowers bear the responsibility of managing their profound differences to ensure global peace and sustainable economic prosperity in the twenty-first century.
