SINGAPORE/JAKARTA: Muhamad Yasin, a 63-year-old parking attendant in central Jakarta, says he has cut back on meals as rising prices have put food staples beyond his reach. "I used to be able to get rice, tempeh and tofu for 7,000 to 8,000 rupiah ($0.39 to $0.44).

Now it's 15,000 rupiah," said Yasin, who earns 200,000 to 300,000 rupiah a week, beside the minimarket where he watches over parked motorcycles. Global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist well into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies, putting additional pressure on vulnerable consumers like Yasin, a father of four.

In Indonesia, rice prices have already jumped to record highs amid forecasts of delayed rains, while the cost of bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter and sugar prices in India hit an all-time high as the weakest monsoon in over a decade curbed production.

"All this has put considerable pressure on the system," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). "We will see a bigger impact towards the end of the year, at the beginning of next year and potentially throughout next year." The world's poorest consumers are being hit the hardest as food prices rise sharply in low- and middle-income countries across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, where food accounts for a larger share of household spending.

According to the World Bank, food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22 per cent of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14 per cent in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded commodities, averaged 136 points in September, the highest reading since November 2022.

Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt governments that are key suppliers to impose export bans, further exacerbating shortages. Multiple supply shocks, including attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure, have disrupted wheat shipments, forcing top importers Egypt and Indonesia to seek alternative supplies, while Red Sea insecurity diverts vessels onto longer, costlier routes around Africa.

The war has raised fuel prices and disrupted fertiliser exports through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up farming costs even as dry El Nino weather reduces output in India and Southeast Asia. Wheat prices are up more than 30 per cent in 2026, while rice prices in key Asian exporting countries have risen 10 per cent to 13 per cent in spite of large inventories.

Fertiliser prices remain elevated, threatening future crop yields globally. Governments are now scrambling to secure food security as the geopolitical landscape remains volatile.

Analysts warn that without coordinated international intervention, the reliance on food imports will become unsustainable for developing nations. The combination of climate-induced crop failures and logistical bottlenecks creates a "perfect storm" for global food markets.

For individuals like Yasin, the economic reality is stark. As he monitors the parking lot, his primary concern remains the rising cost of basic sustenance.

The global trend of food inflation is not merely a statistical figure but a daily struggle for millions who find their purchasing power eroded by factors far beyond their control. International financial institutions are calling for increased investment in local agricultural resilience to mitigate the impact of future shocks.

However, with the current trajectory of supply chain disruptions, the immediate outlook for food affordability remains grim for the foreseeable future.