BANGKOK: Last week's meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) yielded no new answers for the developing world regarding the questions posed by a spreading Middle East war, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising debt payments, and a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
Once again, lower-income countries are being rocked by the spillover from the actions of wealthier nations: rising debt service costs, higher inflation, and the risk of falling further behind economically due to the AI boom. The global lenders offered their standard advice: shrink fiscal deficits and accelerate economic reforms to attract private sector investment.
Kristalina Georgieva, the first IMF chief from a developing nation - Bulgaria - stated that advanced economies were, in fact, the worst offenders regarding budget imbalances. She noted that while developing countries' debt levels had fallen in recent years, surging bond yields elsewhere had driven up their borrowing costs.
Average debt service payments have more than doubled from a decade ago to 14 per cent of government revenue, crowding out education, healthcare, and other critical sectors. Advanced economies focused on their own problems: At a panel on Saturday, Georgieva remarked that many issues remained unresolved, especially concerning AI: "We are in a place where we have many more questions than we have answers.
My alert to everybody is: Do not fall for those who pretend they have the answers. They are tricking you."
Josh Lipsky, vice president of international economics at the Atlantic Council, said the meetings failed to provide necessary guidance. "It's hard to talk about the developing world when the advanced economies don't have their act together and are at risk of a fiscal crisis," he said.
Mauricio Cardenas, a former Colombian finance minister and research scholar at Columbia University, added that many policymakers felt "something really bad could happen" without a clear roadmap to navigate the future. Geopolitical tensions were also evident in Bangkok when nearly half the delegates at an IMF steering committee walked out during the Russian finance minister's speech.
Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport delayed the arrival of the committee head, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, who had to reroute his travel through Qatar. Bangkok itself served as a stark reminder of the challenges facing developing nations, as the city remained partially submerged following September floods that caused nearly $200 million in damage to Thailand's industrial sector.
The lack of consensus at these high-level meetings highlights a growing divide between the Global North and South, leaving many nations to navigate an increasingly volatile global economic landscape on their own.
