The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has forecast a 22 percent irrigation water shortage for Punjab and Sindh during the upcoming Rabi season, which runs from October 1 to March 31. The shortage will impact major crops, including wheat, tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes. The winter crops' (Rabi) total provincial water withdrawals are set at 29.183 million acre-feet (MAF) against anticipated rim-station inflows of 21.268 MAF.
The decision was taken at a meeting of Irsa's Advisory Committee on Tuesday after reviewing various inflow scenarios using the WAA-Tool, jointly developed by CSIRO Australia, the University of British Columbia Watershed Model and stakeholders. The shortage will be reviewed periodically by Irsa. Under the approved allocation, Punjab will receive 15.564 MAF and Sindh 11.748 MAF, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's CRBC system will receive 0.701 MAF and Balochistan 1.171 MAF, bringing the total to 29.183 MAF.
The committee also reviewed the Kharif 2026 water position, noting that actual inflows stood at 95.44 MAF, 8 per cent below anticipation, 7 per cent below the 10-year average and 22 percent lower than the previous year. Total water storage on Sept. 30 stood at 9.343 MAF, below the anticipated 12.014 MAF, the 10-year average of 9.938 MAF and last year's 13.214 MAF.
Downstream Kotri escapage during Kharif was 10.40 MAF, also substantially below the anticipated 13.05 MAF, 10-year average of 15.43 MAF and last year's 30.85 MAF. The committee said provincial utilisation during Kharif remained below Water Accord shares, by 11pc in Punjab, 7pc in Sindh, 28pc in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 58pc in Balochistan. Irsa also urged the early completion of Wapda's T4 LLO and T5 hydropower projects, saying delays were contributing to water shortages for provinces during Kharif seasons.
The committee separately approved the tentative closure of Chashma Barrage from Dec. 14, 2027, a 21-day shutdown synchronised with provincial annual canal closure programmes.