After three years of shifting wheat trade frameworks, the 2027-28 grain marketing policy faces a fourth-year test with no clear roadmap for the upcoming season, raising food security concerns amid vague decision-making. According to the Progressive Flour Millers Group (PFMG), a body of pioneering wheat processors dealing in branded products, since the 2024-25 wheat marketing year, the government has abandoned strategic planning in favour of erratic policy experiments that have severely hurt the confidence of growers, consumers, and flour millers.
Just before the harvesting season, the incumbent government decided in 2024 to deregulate the wheat trade and withdraw from procurement - abolishing the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and subsidies - reportedly under pressure from international donors. Majid Abdullah, president of the PFMG, points out that the sudden decision made by the government at that time was devoid of a well-organised transition or consultation with stakeholders.
The food department unexpectedly withdrew from starting wheat procurement right before the harvest, and with no significant institutional buyer remaining in the market, wheat prices fell sharply, gravely putting growers at the mercy of market dynamics without sufficient protections. For flour millers, the situation worsened in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Khaleeque Arshad, chairperson of the PFMG, highlights that the government actively encouraged millers to procure larger quantities of wheat to support the market. Trusting this signal, millers invested heavily and procured according to their capacity.
However, immediately after this procurement, the food department imposed a cap of Rs3,000 per 40 kg on the maximum retail price of flour. This, he said, distorted market economics and undermined the commercial viability of that procurement, exposing flour mills to billions of rupees in losses.
In the 2025-26 marketing year, a third experiment was introduced: procurement through government-appointed aggregators at an indicative price of Rs3,500 per 40 kg. According to Abdullah, this mechanism was launched without securing necessary financial arrangements.
When banks withdrew their support just before the season began, the initiative collapsed, with negligible actual procurement against the three million tons target. Now, as the wheat sector stares at the upcoming 2027-28 marketing year, the Food Directorate is reportedly planning to re-enter the grain procurement business, making another major policy reversal.
The Directorate may procure 2.5 million tonnes of wheat at Rs4,500 per 40 kg using its own resources. This raises a critical question: What will the fourth year's policy actually look like, and how will the government reconcile this massive public procurement with its donor commitments to end subsidies?
The current announcements remain vague, leaving millers bracing for more uncertainty, said the PFMG leaders. Both Abdullah and Arshad stress that the fundamental issue is not deregulation itself, but the lack of a consistent, predictable framework.
The government is caught between satisfying international donors and managing domestic political pressures, resulting in a hybrid model where rules are changed after the game has begun. For flour millers, this trial-and-error approach makes long-term investment impossible.